Orlando Housing Market Snapshot-September 2016

Orlando home sales jump 7 percent; median price rises 14 percent as inventory continues downward slide

Sales of homes in Orlando experienced a year-over-year increase of 7.32 percent for the month of August, reports the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association. The jump occurred amid yet another double-digit decrease in inventory, which continues to contribute to the area’s sustained rise in median price.

“Despite a 10 percent drop in overall inventory, continued buyer demand drove Orlando home sales up by more than 7 percent and contributed to a 14 percent jump in median price between August 2015 and August 2016,” says Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President John Lazenby, Colony Realty Group, Inc.

“The rise in median price is being driven, in particular, by massive year-over-year declines in inventory among single-family residences under $300,000, and purchases within this price range accounted for nearly 75 percent of all sales in August, ” explains Lazenby. “There were 21 percent fewer single-family homes listed below $300,000 available for purchase than this month last year. The lack of available options is pushing buyers to take advantage of the current low interest rates and choose more expensive properties they might not otherwise be able to afford with higher rates.”

To further illustrate the impact that so few available homes priced below $300,000 is having on median price, Lazenby points to the months-of-supply statistic. “Factoring in the current pace of sales, there is a 1.98-month supply for single-family homes priced less than $300,000, whereas five to six months’ worth of inventory is considered balanced between buyers and sellers.” says Lazenby. “This more ‘balanced’ inventory of homes isn’t seen until homes reach the $400,000+ price range.”

Months of Supply by Price Category, Single-family Homes
August 2016
Price Category/Months of Supply
$200,000 and below/1.55
$200,001 – $300,000/2.43
$300,001 – $400,000/2.86
$400,001 – $600,000/ 5.49
$600,001 – $800,000/9.79
$800,001 – $1M/9.88
$1M and above/24.88

Median Price

The overall median price (all sales types and all home types combined) for the month of August 2016 is $205,990, a 13.81 percent jump compared to the $181,000 median price in August 2015. The median price is steady compared to the July 2016 median of $206,000.

The Orlando median home price has now experienced year-over-year increases for the past 61 consecutive months; as of August the median price is 78.35 percent higher than it was in July 2011.

The year-to-year median price of normal sales increased 4.88 percent, while the median price for foreclosure sales increased 11.11 percent and short sales increased 8.04 percent.

The median price of single-family homes increased 12.50 percent when compared to August of last year, and the median price of condos increased 15.25 percent.

Completed Sales

Members of ORRA participated in the sale of 3,429 homes (all home types and all sale types combined) that closed in August 2016, an increase of 7.32 percent compared to August 2015 and an increase of 2.27 percent compared to July 2016.

Sales of normal homes increased 27.89 percent in August 2016, while foreclosures decreased 56.22 percent and short sales decreased 38.71 percent. Sales of single-family homes increased 5.13 percent year over year; condo sales increased 14.65 percent.

Homes of all types spent an average of 56 days on the market before coming under contract in August 2016, and the average home sold for 97.35 percent of its listing price. In August 2015 those numbers were 69 days and 97.04 percent, respectively.

The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in August was 3.49 percent. Last month, the average interest rate was 3.45 percent, while in August of last year homebuyers paid an average interest rate of 3.96 percent.

Pending Sales

Pending sales – those under contract and awaiting closing – are currently at 4,955. The number of pending sales in August 2016 is 16.14 percent lower than it was in August 2015 and 4.31 percent lower than it was in July 2016.

Normal properties made up 72.92 percent of pending sales in August 2016. Short sales accounted for 15.58 percent, while bank-owned properties accounted for 11.50 percent.

Inventory

The number of existing homes (all types combined) that were available for purchase in August is 9.91 percent below that of August 2015 and now rests at 10,505. Inventory decreased by 1.34 percent (143 homes in number) compared to last month.

The inventory of normal homes decreased 0.54 percent, while foreclosures decreased 62.67 percent and short sales decreased 44.70 percent.

The inventory of single-family homes is down by 8.85 percent when compared to August of 2015, while condo inventory is down by 16.81 percent. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes, and villas is down by 6.99 percent.

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 3.06-month supply of homes in Orlando for August. There was a 3.65-month supply in August 2015 and a 3.18-month supply last month.

Affordability

The August affordability index is 161.63, a decrease from July’s 162.28 percent. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)

Buyers who earn the reported median income of $57,323 can qualify to purchase one of 4,490 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $332,933 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in August decreased to 114.93 from last month’s 115.40 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $38,980 can qualify to purchase one of the 2,157 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $201,239 or less.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area were up 14.65 percent, with 407 sales recorded in August 2016 compared to 355 in August 2015.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 335 duplexes, town homes, and villas in August 2016, which is 17.96 percent more than in August 2015.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in August (4,055) were up by 4.40 percent when compared to August of 2015 (3,884). To date, sales in the MSA are down 0.40 percent.

Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows:

• Lake: 15.36 percent above August 2015;
• Orange: 3.16 percent above August 2015;
• Osceola: 3.92 percent below August 2015; and
• Seminole: 6.50 percent above August 2015.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the My Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor MFRMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or MFRMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales, referred to as the core market, represent all sales by members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association, not necessarily those sales strictly in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.